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This report represents a synthesis of the current available information relating to observed trends and historical conditions across the Murray–Darling Basin. Trends reported in this report represent natural – or unmanaged – conditions arising from changes in the climate system.

In 2007–2008 CSIRO Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields (MDBSY) project published a series of reports documenting water availability across the Murray-Darling Basin, including an assessment of the likely impacts of climate change to ~2030 on water availability (e.g. CSIRO 2008a).

Conflict over the control and sharing of the waters of the River Murray was one of the most contentious issues at the time of Federation.

The purpose of this report is to provide the Murray–Darling Basin Authority advice on defining climate scenarios for use in the MDBA modelling to guide development of the first Basin Plan.