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Predicting floodplain habitat inundation throughout the Murray–Darling Basin to inform the management of environmental flows

The research focused on improving understanding of low flow requirements of environmental assets and values in a climate change context and developing a conservation prioritisation method to identify priority locations for future management decisions.
MD-WERP
Science and research
Environment

 

MD-WERP theme Environmental outcomes
MD-WERP research question How can we better predict health of water dependent ecosystems? Develop tools to enable the Commonwealth to predict ecosystem responses to changes in flow?
Project title Predicting change in floodplain habitat availability at the Basin scale
Research lead La Trobe University and Griffith University
Authors L. Gould, B. Stewart-Koster, G Hunt, M Kennard and F Sheldon
Author contact details B. Stewart-Koster
Date of publication March 2024
Report full title Predicting floodplain habitat inundation throughout the Murray–Darling Basin to inform the management of environmental flows 
Keywords Murray–Darling Basin; floodplain habitat; floodplain ecosystems; floodplain biota; river red gum; lignum habitat; ecological services; environmental flows; floodplain inundation; flow delivery; catchment characteristics; anthropogenic disturbance; catchment development; climate; basin scale management; Australian National Aquatic Ecosystem (ANAE)
Summary of output
  • The project aimed to understand how spatial and temporal factors influence floodplain inundation across the Murray–Darling Basin.
  • This study mapped the spatial and temporal distribution of inundation in two key floodplain habitat types: river red gum forest and lignum shrub land habitat. Relationships between these floodplain habitat types and flow, rainfall and broad scale catchment variables were quantified using a gradient boosting decision tree algorithm.
  • This information was used to predict how different floodplain habitat types may respond to changes in flow under three different flow scenarios (a flow scenario under a dry climate, a flow scenario under a wet climate and flows that would occur under a without development (WOD) scenario).
Key findings / recommendations
  • While important, flow is not the only determinant of floodplain inundation. Physical catchment characteristics, alongside levels of anthropogenic disturbance, are also important predictors of floodplain inundation. This suggests that environmental flow planning should occur within the context of the surrounding catchment.
  • By influencing the skew of the hydrograph, alterations to flows in the mid-low hydrograph may have a large impact on floodplain inundation.
  • Floodplain ecosystems in the northwest of the Basin may be at risk of habitat loss under a dry climate flow scenario.
  • Catchment development including dams, weirs and water extraction has a large effect on floodplain inundation, however the effects of catchment development on floodplain inundation may differ between the north and the south of the Basin.
Target audience Water managers, researchers, Australian Government, state governments, local governments, conservation advocacy groups, First Nations advisory groups and individual First Nations

Published date: 19 May 2025