Opportunities for water forecasts to inform water management decisions in the Murray–Darling Basin

The hydrology theme enhanced hydrological knowledge and advanced modelling capacity to inform water resources management and planning in the Murray–Darling Basin.

Science and research

MD-WERP theme	Hydrology
MD-WERP research question	How can adaptation through enhanced river operations management improve water outcomes?
Project title	Enhancing river operation outcomes using water forecasts and optimisation
Research lead	CSIRO
Authors	David Robertson and Seline Ng
Author contact details	David Robertson Seline Ng
Date of publication	November 2021
Report full title	Opportunities for water forecasts to inform water management decisions in the Murray–Darling Basin
Keywords	Murray–Darling Basin; NSW; Qld; BoM; SunWater; river; environmental water; high flow; Murray; Hume; Yarrawonga; Condamine–Balonne; CEWO; water forecast
Summary of output	New and emerging water forecast products are becoming available that can support river operation decision-making in the Basin e.g. to manage natural and augmented high flow events for improved environmental water delivery. This report (i) summarises the opportunities for water forecasting to improve river operations and environmental water delivery in the Basin as identified by MDBA river operators and CEWO, and (ii) describes 2 case studies to demonstrate how these opportunities can be realised. The first case study is of an area in the southern Basin, while the second is an area in the northern Basin. The opportunities for water forecasts to improve river operations and environmental water delivery are based on a series of meetings with the MDBA, CEWO, QLD RDMW, QLD DES, BOM and SunWater. The 2 case studies proposed are based on the opportunities and seek to address the areas of greatest potential identified through the meetings.
Key findings / recommendations	The first study will support MDBA river operators to better characterise the risks related to river regulation decisions. Ensemble forecasts of unregulated tributary inflows, such as those currently produced by the BOM, will be integrated into models of regulated systems and tools to translate ensemble forecast products into assessments of system operation risks, e.g. chance of exceeding flood thresholds. Methods will be developed and demonstrated. The case study will focus on the upper Murray River between Hume Dam to Yarrawonga. The second case study will demonstrate how forecasts can support CEWO to decide when to activate event-based mechanisms for supplementing environmental water delivery. The case study will focus on the Condamine–Balonne catchment in the northern Basin. The case study will prototype novel event-volume forecast products that can be derived by combining streamflow observations and existing BOM seasonal and 7-day streamflow forecast products, to produce products that can be directly related to CEWO decisions.
Target audience	Researchers, Australian Government, state governments, local governments

Report
Publication title	Published	File type	File size
Opportunities for water forecasts to inform water management decisions in the Murray–Darling Basin	04 Nov 2022	PDF	323.99 KB

Published date: 19 May 2025