Assessing the sensitivity of water resources in the Murray–Darling to fire and climate change

This report documents the state of knowledge of the secondary, or indirect, impacts of climate change and prioritises topics for investigation in the MD-WERP climate adaption theme.

Science and research

MD-WERP theme	Climate adaptation
MD-WERP theme 1 project	Climate adaptation foundational science
Research lead	CSIRO
Authors	David Robertson, Hongxing Zheng, Durga Lal Shrestha and Francis Chiew
Author contact details	David Robertson
Date of publication	March 2024
Report full title	Assessing the sensitivity of water resources in the Murray–Darling to fire and climate change
Keywords	foundational science; climate change; climate scenario; bushfire; fire; weather; water availability; water resources; climate adaptation; catchment; run-off; rainfall; leaf area index (LAI); vegetation; land cover; forest fire danger index; hydrological processes
Summary of output	Climate change projections indicate that conditions conducive to bushfires are expected to become worse in the future. Historically, fires have been shown to have short- and long-term impacts on catchment runoff and hence water availability. However, how the consequences of projected increases in the severity of fire weather impacted on projected runoff is poorly understood. This study investigated the potential impacts of bushfires on water availability under a changing climate for more than 100 catchments in the Murray–Darling Basin. Modelling methods were established that relate: climate data to fire weather fire weather to the area of forest burnt and changes in leaf area index (LAI) due to bushfire post-fire recovery of LAI catchment runoff to LAI. Runoff projections generated using these methods were compared to those generated using more traditional modelling methods that do not consider the effects of bushfires.
Key findings / recommendations	Under the investigated future climate scenario, fire weather is projected to be more severe, and frequency and extent of bushfires is projected to increase. Catchment average LAI is projected to decrease due to the increased frequency and extent of bushfires. The impact of projected increases in fire extent and severity on projected catchment runoff is expected to be relatively small because fires will still occur relatively infrequently, and any individual fire will only cover part of the catchment. Changes in future runoff are expected to be dominated by the direct impacts of changes in future rainfall and potential evaporation.
Target audience	Water managers, researchers, Australian Government, state governments, local governments, community, water and environmental consultants

Report
Publication title	Published	File type	File size
Assessing the sensitivity of water resources in the Murray–Darling to fire and climate change	04 Mar 2024	PDF	2.22 MB

Published date: 19 May 2025