This regular update includes:
- catchment conditions
- forecast rainfall and inflows
- water releases
- planned management for the coming week.
Catchment conditions
For the week of 11 to 17 October the rainfall for Victoria and southern New South Wales remained largely above average with most areas receiving between 50 to 100 mm. Soil moisture levels for the upper Murray are slightly higher than last week at 74% and continue to remain well above average for this time of year.
Forecast rainfall and inflows
The Bureau of Meteorology is expecting rainfall totals to 24 October to be in the range of 50 to 100 mm across much of the southern Murray–Darling Basin, including significant falls in Victoria (noting also that significant falls are expected in northern New South Wales).
The 7-day forecast map is automatically generated and subject to change daily when the models are run.
The Bureau of Meteorology is the best source of information to stay up-to-date with more detailed forecast rainfall and flood information.
The outlook for the next 3 months shows a similar picture with a high chance of above-median rainfall.
The status of the Bureau of Meteorology’s El Niño–Southern Oscillation Outlook remains at La Niña. The Bureau suggests this La Niña event may return to neutral conditions early in 2023. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall during spring and summer for northern and eastern Australia.
In addition, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is likely to continue into late spring. A negative IOD event is typically associated with above average spring rainfall for much of Australia.
Dartmouth and Hume dams this week
Flood operations continue to be conducted at both dams.
Releases have increased from Hume Dam in recent days to generate additional airspace ahead of the forecast rain which is anticipated across the catchments again from Thursday, 20 October.
Currently it is expected that River Murray flows at Doctors Point and Albury will be kept below the levels they reached in late September, but in this dynamic environment future flows are subject to rainfall forecasts.
The MDBA does not provide flow forecasts during periods of flooding. It is critical communities continue to refer to the Bureau of Meteorology for information on river heights.
Are you flood ready?
If you live, work or holiday on a floodplain, be prepared
Develop your personalised flood emergency plan for your home and property
www.ses.nsw.gov.au
www.ses.vic.gov.au/plan-and-stay-safe
All residents can sign up for the Early Warning Network to be notified about Hume Dam release activities during periods of flooding or high releases
www.waternsw.com.au/supply/ewn
Check the BoM website to receive the latest weather and flood information and warnings in your area
www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood
www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings